Technology A site assesses the risk of being confronted with Covid-19 during the end of the year holidays

A site assesses the risk of being confronted with Covid-19 during the end of the year holidays

Prime Minister Jean Castex warned Thursday, November 12 that it would be irresponsible to release containment. But can we celebrate Christmas with more than ten guests at the table? American researchers have just created a website, covid19risk, to assess the risk of having a guest with the Covid-19 coronavirus on the holiday menu.

Do you have friends in Lyon in the Rhône? Having dinner with them right now represents a 65% risk that there will be one with Covid. Are you having dinner in Paris? There is a 32% risk. Want to know where it would be best? At the moment it is in Charente-Maritime where we are down to 14%. But if you increase to 25 people in your Parisian evening, it will be 65%. And if we invite 50 people to Savoie, there is a 99% risk of having “a covid in the evening”.

This site does not tell you the risk for you of catching the Covid because it was not designed to assess your behavior, whether you wear a mask or not for example, or where you are, if it is closed or open, well ventilated or not.

This site has an interactive map that focuses on counties for the United States and regions or departments in a few European countries, such as France. They are colored yellow, orange or red depending on the circulation of the virus. You choose if you participate in an event with 10, 15, 20 or 5,000 people and then a percentage of risk appears that one of them has the Covid.

It was Joshua Weitz, director of research in quantum biosciences at Georgia Tech University, who developed it by aggregating official data on contamination cases in ten countries. He multiplies them by 5 and by 10 because today researchers estimate that the tests find only one in 10 positive people. In fact, he wanted to make this site before the Thanskgiving holidays in the United States to give a sort of “weather map” of the covid risk to his fellow citizens.

This map is based on a mathematical probability formula. In any case, we see that the epidemic and its figures give ground to grind to mathematicians who compete with graphics, interactive maps, to help us better understand what is happening.

We see that it is not easy to know the probabilities of catching the Covid. A mathematician from the college of France tries to calculate them within the home. Amaury Lambert thus launched the Alcov 2 study based on a questionnaire among 10,000 French households.

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